“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times”. A Tale of Two Cities, by Charles Dickens, published 1859.
December 28, 2018
“It was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness…” Sounds quite a bit like today. Half the world believes the sun is rising and the other half believes it’s setting. With respect to the global economy, there is a bit of both light and dark at this moment.
On the side of light:
- The global economy is very strong.
- Of the 43 countries we track, all but two are showing positive economic growth.
- In the US the employment picture is very strong and wages are increasing.
- We appear to be having a great shopping season but we will have to wait on fourth quarter results to confirm.
- Global leaders are getting used to the new behavior norms.
- The US continues to win its trade battles as export economies need our consumption economy.
On the dark side:
- There is no question that year-over-year growth is slowing. This is a normal component of the economic cycle. The good news is that the softening is from a level of great strength.
- There are jitters being created by Fed tightening, but we believe they are competent in managing rates.
- Politics and the media continue to sensationalize the events of the day.
Overall, it appears that we are heading into a mild recession. The selloff has made stocks cheaper providing buying opportunities as we move into 2019. Not to be ignored is the opportunity to lock in higher bond yields as interest rates peak.
We are writing to put things in perspective and to remind all readers to stick with their asset allocation. We continue to adjust our models to prevailing conditions.
As always, we would be happy to discuss any of this with anyone who would like to give us a call or send us an e-mail – firstname.lastname@example.org.